Asymmetric trade liberalizations and current account dynamics
研究了不对称贸易自由化如何影响经常账户动态，以韩国2010-2018年签署优惠贸易协定为例，通过模型和实证分析表明当前和未来贸易成本的不对称变化会分别减少和增加贸易余额。
Abstract I propose asymmetric trade liberalizations as a new potential determinant of current account dynamics. I focus on South Korea, which experienced a rise and fall of its current account in the period from 2010 to 2018, when it signed preferential trade agreements (PTAs) with its main trading partners. First, I develop a model where the current account depends on the timing of present and future relative changes of trade costs. Second, I provide empirical evidence supporting the key predictions of the model using the Canada–Korea PTA. PTAs provide predictable, potentially asymmetric, future tariff paths on many products. I use information for over 2,500 HS‐6 products to build relative trade liberalization measures, and show that current (future) high relative trade liberalizations tend to decrease (increase) the trade balance, consistent with the model. Finally, I propose a quantitative investigation of the Korean surplus based on the asymmetric dynamics of trade costs between South Korea and its main trading partners. I develop a two‐country international real business cycle model augmented with trade costs. When fed with the actual asymmetric trends found in the data, the model generates a current account surplus of about 2.15% of GDP, roughly 66% of what was observed in the Korean data.