Does Merger Simulation Work? Evidence from the Swedish Analgesics Market
分析瑞典止痛药市场的一次大型并购，发现并购后合并企业提价40%，部分外部企业提价超10%，并将实际价格变化与并购模拟模型的预测进行对比，检验模型预测的准确性。
We analyze a large merger in the Swedish market for analgesics (painkillers). The merging firms raised prices by 40 percent, and some outsiders raised prices by more than 10 percent. We confront these changes with predictions from a merger simulation model. With basic supply side assumptions, the models correctly or moderately underpredict the merging firms' price increase. However, they predict a larger price increase for the smaller firm, which was not the case in practice, and they underpredict the outsiders' responses. We consider several supply side explanations: a plausible cost increase after the merger and the possibility of partial collusion.