Experiments on Decisions under Uncertainty: A Theoretical Framework
提出一个理论框架，分析实验对象对实验设计的猜测如何影响实验室数据解读，并以不确定性决策实验为例，证明在无限制时任何行为都与标准更新一致，而实验协议限制猜测后标准更新才有可检验含义。
The analysis of lab data entails a joint test of the underlying theory and of subjects' conjectures regarding the experimental design itself, how subjects frame the experiment. We provide a theoretical framework for analyzing such conjectures. We use experiments of decision making under uncertainty as a case study. Absent restrictions on subjects' framing of the experiment, we show that any behavior is consistent with standard updating (“anything goes”), including those suggestive of anomalies such as overconfidence, excess belief stickiness, etc. When the experimental protocol restricts subjects' conjectures (plausibly, by generating information during the experiment), standard updating has nontrivial testable implications.