Latent advantage, complex challenges: Industrial policy and Chinese linkages in Ethiopia's leather sector
基于新结构经济学框架，通过访谈埃塞俄比亚皮革产业的外资与本土企业，评估政府七项产业政策步骤，指出虽改善价值链但未能完全实现潜在比较优势。
Industrial policy is back on the African policy agenda, with a number of countries following new strategies for rapid industrialization. None have done so more eagerly than Ethiopia. The present paper draws on Justin Yifu Lin's framework of New Structural Economics to assess Ethiopia's industrial policies and engagement in the leather industry. Making use of two rounds of semi-structured interviews (2012 and 2015) with all of the foreign firms and more than a dozen local firms in the leather sector, as well as other key stakeholders, it examines seven steps the government took to build the industrial policy: Create a high-level focus on the sector; make strategic use of international development partners; attract a “lead goose” (Chinese) in the footwear sector; build government capacity to support the sector; strengthen business associations; “shock-to-shape” upgrading; improve input supply. Ultimately, while government interventions have led to improvements across several steps of the value chain, the paper identifies a number of factors that have prevented the country from fully realizing a latent comparative advantage in the leather sector.