World shocks, world prices, and business cycles: An empirical investigation
使用多商品价格传递世界冲击的实证框架，基于138个国家1960-2015年面板数据，发现世界冲击平均解释33%的国内产出波动，且2000年后这一比例翻倍，表明单一世界价格模型严重低估了世界冲击对国内商业周期的重要性。
SVAR models that include a single world price (such as the terms-of-trade) predict that world shocks explain a small fraction of movements in domestic output (typically less than 10%). This paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices transmit world disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960–2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33% of output fluctuations in individual economies. This figure doubles when the model is estimated on post 2000 data. The findings reported here suggest that one-world-price specifications significantly underestimate the importance of world shocks for domestic business cycles.