Propagation Mechanisms for Government Spending Shocks: A Bayesian Comparison
用贝叶斯方法比较五种政府支出传导机制模型，发现它们都无法改善基准模型的拟合度，且所有模型都预测消费会随政府支出增加而下降。
Abstract The inability of a simple real business cycle model to predict a rise in consumption in response to increased government expenditures, observed in many empirical studies, has stimulated the development of alternative theories of government spending shocks. Using the Bayesian approach, we evaluate the quantitative performance of five extant models, and find that neither of the considered transmission mechanisms for government spending helps improve the fit of the baseline model. Moreover, we find that consumption decreases in all estimated models in response to a rise in government spending.