时间偏好与抵押贷款选择

Time Preferences and Mortgage Choice

Journal of Marketing Research · 2016
被引 44
FT 50UTD 24ABS 4★

中文导读

研究了时间偏好(现时偏向和长期贴现)如何影响消费者的抵押贷款选择及放弃抵押贷款的决定,发现现时偏向者倾向选择前期成本低的贷款但不愿放弃抵押,而长期耐心者更可能放弃抵押。

Abstract

Mortgage decisions have important consequences for consumers, lenders, and the state of the economy more generally. Mortgage decisions are also prototypical of consumer financial choices that involve a stream of expenditures and consumption occurring across time. The authors use heterogeneity in time preferences for both immediate (present bias) and long-term outcomes to explain a sequence of mortgage decisions, including mortgage choice and the decision to abandon a mortgage. The authors employ an analytic model and a survey of mortgaged households augmented by zip code–level house price and foreclosure data. The model suggests and data confirm that consumers with greater present bias and long-term discounting tend to choose mortgages that minimize up-front costs. However, greater present bias decreases homeowners' willingness to abandon a mortgage, locking them into the contract. Long-term patience increases mortgage abandonment. This reversal across mortgage decisions is difficult for alternative accounts to explain. These results suggest that a two-parameter model of time preferences is helpful for understanding how homeowners make mortgage decisions.

行为经济学家庭金融抵押贷款时间偏好