The Real‐Time Properties of the Bank of Canada's Staff Output Gap Estimates
研究了加拿大央行自1980年代中期以来产出缺口估计的修正特性，发现2000年代初后平均修正显著减小，而计量经济估计的修正未改善；实时缺口对菲利普斯曲线通胀预测影响有限。
Abstract We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada's staff output gap estimates since the mid‐1980s and show that the average revision has been significantly smaller since the early 2000s. Alternatively, revisions from econometric output gap estimates have not experienced a similar improvement. We show that the overestimation of potential output in real time following the 1991–92 recession explains the large revisions in the first half of the sample. Although Phillips‐curve inflation forecasts slightly worsen when conditioned on real time instead of final gaps, their relative poor performance reflects the general lack of inflation predictability rather than real‐time gap measurement issues.