Demand forecasting and order planning for humanitarian logistics: An empirical assessment
基于无国界医生组织阿姆斯特丹运营中心2013年19个长期援助项目和2000多种医疗物资的消费数据，分析了需求预测和订单规划过程，发现内外部因素通过需求波动和安全加价间接影响绩效，并提出了改进机会。
Abstract Humanitarian aid organizations are most known for their short‐term emergency relief. While getting aid items to those in need can be challenging, long‐term projects provide an opportunity for demand planning supported by forecasting methods. Based on standardized consumption data of the Operational Center Amsterdam of Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF‐OCA) regarding nineteen longer‐term aid projects and over 2000 medical items consumed in 2013, we describe and analyze the forecasting and order planning process. We find that several internal and external factors influence forecast and order planning performance, be it indirectly through demand volatility and safety markup. Moreover, we identify opportunities for further improvement for MSF‐OCA, and for humanitarian logistics organizations in general.