零利率下限下的货币与财政政策设计:来自实验室的证据

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY DESIGN AT THE ZERO LOWER BOUND: EVIDENCE FROM THE LAB

Economic Inquiry · 2018
被引 40
ABS 3

中文导读

通过实验室实验研究了在流动性陷阱中货币与财政政策的有效性,发现单独货币政策不足以避免流动性陷阱,但结合财政切换规则可成功摆脱,并测得零利率下限下大于1的财政乘数。

Abstract

The global economic crisis of 2007–2008 has pushed many advanced economies into a liquidity trap. We design a laboratory experiment on the effectiveness of policy measures to avoid expectation‐driven liquidity traps. Monetary policy alone is not sufficient to avoid liquidity traps, even if it preventively cuts the interest rate when inflation falls below a threshold. However, monetary policy augmented with a fiscal switching rule succeeds in escaping liquidity trap episodes. We measure the effect of fiscal policy on expectations, and report larger‐than‐unity fiscal multipliers at the zero lower bound. Experimental results in different treatments are well explained by adaptive learning.

货币政策财政政策流动性陷阱实验经济学宏观经济学