Additional Evidence on the Accuracy of Analyst Forecasts Before and After Voluntary Management Earnings Forecasts.
研究管理层自愿发布盈利预测前后，分析师预测的准确性变化，发现管理层预测比分析师事前预测更准，且与分析师事后预测准确性相当，但结论依赖于样本量大小。
Abstract ABSTRACT: This study examines the relative accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts prepared both before (prior forecasts) and after (posterior forecasts) voluntary management earnings forecasts. The motivation for the study stems directly from recent studies which document statistically significant stock price reactions associated with management forecasts. The results of these studies suggest that management conveys new (or inside) information about earnings through its forecasts. Based on these results, one would expect that management forecasts would be more accurate than prior analyst forecasts while management and posterior analyst forecasts would be equally accurate. This paper reports results fully consistent with both of these predictions. These results, however, are conditional upon caveats about the estimation dates for analyst forecasts used to classify them as prior or posterior Several previous studies have also investigated similar issues but have produced conflicting results. The tests reported here are based on larger samples than those found in previous studies. This suggests that any accuracy differences between management and analysts are of such magnitude that they can be detected only in relatively large samples.