Six centuries of British economic growth: a time-series perspective
本文对1270-1913年英国实际GDP和工业产出的年度估计进行时间序列分析，发现增长可视为分段趋势平稳过程，人均实际GDP趋势增长在1660年代前为零，之后经历两次显著加速，工业革命的特征是工业产出趋势增长率大幅提高。
This paper provides a time-series analysis of recent annual estimates of real GDP and industrial output covering 1270–1913. We show that growth can be regarded as a segmented trend-stationary process. On this basis, we find that trend growth of real GDP per person was zero prior to the 1660s but then experienced two significant accelerations, pre- and post-industrial revolution. We also find that the hallmark of the industrial revolution is a substantial increase in the trend rate of growth of industrial output rather than being an episode of difference stationary growth.