An exploratory policy analysis of electric vehicle sales competition and sensitivity to infrastructure in Europe
本研究利用系统动力学模型，分析了欧盟到2050年针对制造商、用户和基础设施提供者的三种政策选项，发现插电式电动汽车政策可能抑制氢燃料电池车发展，且基础设施在早期市场对销量的影响较弱。
This research contributes to ongoing discussions about policy interventions designed to stimulate the transition of vehicle technology. Three high profile policy options are investigated, aimed at manufacturers, users and infrastructure providers. Concentrating on passenger cars, an extensive system dynamics based market agent model of powertrain technology transitions within the EU up to 2050 is employed. With a focus on subsidy scenarios for both infrastructure deployment and vehicle purchase, and set within the context of the EU fleet emission regulations, we find that there are important interactions between different powertrain types and with infrastructure provision. For example, strong plug-in electric vehicle (PiEV) policy could inhibit the maturity of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Infrastructure provision is important for improving the utility of a PiEV, but we find that in the early market it may have a weaker correlation with uptake than other policy options, until the PiEV stock share is over around 5%. Furthermore, an attempt to install a ratio of much more or much less than one charge point per 10 PiEV may lead to little gains and high costs. PiEV sales are relatively insensitive at target levels below 5 or over 25 PiEV per charge point. The results of our study can help policymakers to find the right balance and timing of measures targeting the transition towards low carbon alternative vehicles.