维护与更换策略中新技术信息的获取

Acquisition of new technology information for maintenance and replacement policies

International Journal of Production Research · 2016
被引 16
ABS 3

中文导读

提出首个考虑获取尚未上市新技术盈利性信息的模型,用于优化资产维护、更换及新技术采用时机,发现新技术到达概率增加不一定使信息获取更有利。

Abstract

In this paper, we propose the first model that considers the option to acquire information on the profitability of a new technology that is not yet available on the market for asset maintenance and replacement decisions. We consider the uncertainty of future asset characteristics by incorporating information acquisition decisions into a non-stationary Markov decision process framework. Using this framework, we optimise asset maintenance and replacement decisions as well as the optimal timing of new technology adoption. Through mathematical analyses, the monotone properties and convexity of the value function and optimal policy are deduced. Deeper numerical analyses highlight the importance of considering the acquisition of information on future technology when formulating a maintenance and replacement policy for the asset. We also deduce a non-intuitive result: an increase in the arrival probability of new technology does not necessarily make the acquisition of additional information more attractive.

资产维护更换策略新技术采用马尔可夫决策过程信息价值