Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment
利用挪威的随机法官设计和面板数据，研究发现监禁能降低再犯概率29个百分点，减少刑事指控11次，但效果因就业状况而异：无业者通过参与就业项目提升未来就业和收入，而有业者则遭受负面就业影响。
Using a random judge design and panel data from Norway, we estimate that imprisonment discourages further criminal behavior, with reoffense probabilities falling by 29 percentage points and criminal charges dropping by 11 over a 5-year period. Ordinary least squares mistakenly reaches the opposite conclusion. The decline is driven by individuals not working prior to incarceration; these individuals increase participation in employment programs and raise their future employment and earnings. Previously employed individuals experience lasting negative employment effects. These findings demonstrate that time spent in prison with a focus on rehabilitation can be preventive for a large segment of the criminal population.