The Marginal Propensity to Consume over the Business Cycle
利用破产记录删除后信用额度变化的数据，估计了边际消费倾向（MPC）随经济周期的变化，发现MPC在大衰退期间高出20%至30%，并与当地失业率正相关。
We estimate how the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of liquidity varies over the business cycle. Ten years after a Chapter 7 bankruptcy, the bankruptcy flag is removed from the filer’s credit report, generating an increase in credit score. In the year following flag removal, credit card limits increase by $778 and credit card balances increase by $290, implying an MPC of 0.37. Using cohorts of flag removals, we find that the MPC was 20 to 30 percent higher during the Great Recession, increased during the 2001 recession, and is positively correlated with the local unemployment rate.