What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Intuition and Reflection on Trader Performance
通过实验室实验，研究了流体智力、认知反思和心理理论三个因素如何影响交易员表现，发现认知反思和心理理论互补，共同帮助交易员从市场订单中提取信号并更新信念。
ABSTRACT Using laboratory experiments, we provide evidence on three factors influencing trader performance: fluid intelligence, cognitive reflection, and theory of mind (ToM). Fluid intelligence provides traders with computational skills necessary to draw a statistical inference. Cognitive reflection helps traders avoid behavioral biases and thereby extract signals from market orders and update their prior beliefs accordingly. ToM describes the degree to which traders correctly assess the informational content of orders. We show that cognitive reflection and ToM are complementary because traders benefit from understanding signals’ quality only if they are capable of processing these signals.