The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread
本文探讨了收益率利差预测经济衰退能力下降的原因，认为央行提高透明度和可信度改善了利率可预测性，但挤出了收益率利差中预测经济活动的私人信息。
Abstract The yield spread has commonly been employed as a successful predictor of economic growth and recessions, although its marginal predictive power has decreased since the 1990s. Notably, the yield spread's declining power to predict US economic activity coincided with its growing power to predict US interest rate changes. In my view, these phenomena are inevitably linked and share one cause. The central bank intended to enhance both its transparency and credibility through greater information disclosure; this disclosure improved interest rate predictability but might also have crowded out useful private information formerly in the yield spread that helped predict economic activity.