Offshoring, Sourcing Substitution Bias, and the Measurement of Growth in U.S. Gross Domestic Product and Productivity
研究了2008年金融危机前十年，美国制造业采购模式变化导致的进口价格指数和GDP平减指数偏差，发现采购替代偏差使进口价格下降未被充分计入，并可能高估了美国私营部门多要素生产率增速的十分之一。
The decade before the financial crisis of 2008 was a time of large changes in sourcing patterns for manufactured goods, particularly after China's entry into the WTO in 2001. Sourcing substitution reduced the prices paid by wholesale level buyers of these goods, but these price reductions were mostly not captured in the U.S. import price indexes and the U.S. GDP deflator. To find plausible values for sourcing bias we first use data on changes in sourcing patterns over 1997–2007 to predict the effect of the reported price discount from the new emerging market suppliers. Next, we compare adjusted import price indexes for products used for household consumption with consumer price indexes. In the GDP deflator for apparel imports, sourcing bias is found to average 0.6 percent per year, and for durable goods it averages 1 percent per year. During the decade of rapidly changing sourcing patterns, a tenth of the reported speedup in multifactor productivity growth of the U.S. private business sector may have come from sourcing bias in the deflators for imports.