Global Identification in DSGE Models Allowing for Indeterminacy
提出了一个分析对数线性化DSGE模型全局识别的框架，涵盖确定性和不确定性情形，通过频域距离和实证接近度度量识别失败与强度，并发现某些参数在不确定性下可识别而确定性下不能。
This article presents a framework for analysing global identification in log linearized Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models that encompasses both determinacy and indeterminacy. First, it considers a frequency domain expression for the Kullback–Leibler distance between two DSGE models and shows that global identification fails if and only if the minimized distance equals 0. This result has three features: (1) it can be applied across DSGE models with different structures; (2) it permits checking whether a subset of frequencies can deliver identification; (3) it delivers parameter values that yield observational equivalence if there is identification failure. Next, the article proposes a measure for the empirical closeness between two DSGE models for a further understanding of the strength of identification. The measure gauges the feasibility of distinguishing one model from another based on a finite number of observations generated by the two models. It is shown to represent the highest possible power under Gaussianity when considering local alternatives. The above theory is illustrated using two small-scale and one medium-scale DSGE models. The results document that certain parameters can be identified under indeterminacy but not determinacy, that different monetary policy rules can be (nearly) observationally equivalent, and that identification properties can differ substantially between small and medium-scale models. For implementation, two procedures are developed and made available, both of which can be used to obtain and thus to cross validate the findings reported in the empirical applications. Although the article focuses on DSGE models, the results are also applicable to other vector linear processes with well-defined spectra, such as the (factor-augmented) vector autoregression.