Prequential Analysis of Cattle Prices
研究了现货和期货牛价的单变量与双变量预测模型，用均方误差和概率校准指标评估模型效果，发现双变量模型对现货价格预测更有用，但对期货价格无额外信息。
The paper considers the prequential analysis of cash and futures cattle prices. Both univariate and bivariate models are studied. Mean-squared error and probability calibration metrics are used to judge the adequacy of the models. Results suggest that the multivariate model provides more information than the univariate model on the predictive distribution of cash prices, while the multivariate model on futures prices does not offer any additional information than that contained in the univariate model of futures prices