Signalling Effects of Monetary Policy
构建动态一般均衡模型，研究政策利率如何向价格制定者传递央行对宏观经济的看法，并用美国数据估计模型，发现信号效应能解释通胀预期对货币政策的滞后反应和长期脱锚现象。
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the policy rate signals the central bank’s view about macroeconomic developments to price setters. The model is estimated with likelihood methods on a U.S. data set that includes the Survey of Professional Forecasters as a measure of price setters’ inflation expectations. This model improves upon existing perfect information models in explaining why, in the data, inflation expectations respond with delays to monetary impulses and remain disanchored for years. In the 1970s, U.S. monetary policy is found to signal-persistent inflationary shocks, explaining why inflation and inflation expectations were so persistently heightened. The signalling effects of monetary policy also explain why inflation expectations adjusted more sluggishly than inflation after the robust monetary tightening of the 1980s.