Dividend Irrelevance and Accounting Models of Value
研究发现，在会计价值模型中，股利与价值看似正相关，但若在模型中有效纳入核心盈余和其他信息，股利置换效应不再被拒绝，股利对盈余的增量预测能力很弱，对价值影响甚微。
Abstract In accounting models of value, dividends typically appear to have a strong positive relationship with value despite theoretical reasons to expect dividend displacement. We show that this result is driven by the relationship between dividends and both core earnings and other information derived from the valuation error in the prior year. Where core earnings can be effectively modelled in a specification including other information, dividend displacement is no longer rejected. Under these circumstances dividends exhibit weak incremental predictive power for earnings and earnings expectations and hence have little impact on value. We show that valuation models are sensitive to model specification and should be used with caution when testing the value impact of firm characteristics or accounting numbers.