Correlated Errors: Why a Monotone Relationship Between Forecast Precision and Trading Profitability May Not Hold
论证了金融分析师的盈利预测精度与推荐盈利性之间的关系需考虑预测误差的共性，发现精度与预期表现正相关，但误差相关性有负面影响，导致单调关系可能不成立。
Abstract: This paper argues that the relation between financial analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy and their recommendation profitability has to be augmented by the extent of commonality in their forecast errors. We show that while accuracy is positively related to expected performance, the correlation in forecasting errors has a negative impact. This implies that a monotonic relationship between ex ante identifiable forecast accuracy and ex post recommendation profitability does not need to hold. Thus, agents may be better off by making comparatively large but less correlated errors, than by making precise but highly correlated forecasts.