On the heterogeneous consequences of civil war
结合案例研究、合成控制和大样本面板数据方法，发现内战对GDP水平的影响存在广泛异质性，平均效应为负但常不显著，许多国家内战对经济增长无影响甚至显著为正。
We show how the occurrence of a civil war has heterogeneous effects on the level of GDP, using case-study, synthetic control and large-N panel-data approaches. We first discuss the relation between these methods and then provide lower and upper estimates of the economic effect of civil war. Although, on average, the incidence of internal conflicts has a negative effect on the GDP level, it is very often insignificant. More importantly, however, both methods display a wide variety of individual effects, and in a large number of countries civil war has either no effect or a positive and significant impact on the prospect for economic growth.