Income uncertainty and the decision to invest in bulk shipping
构建了一个评估实物资产和确定最佳投资时机的框架，通过模拟收入的随机性并利用实物期权方法，帮助航运业评估投资价值并决定何时进入市场。研究发现长期运费率和波动性影响投资时机和价值，且这种影响随船龄增加而减弱。
Abstract We develop a coherent framework for the valuation of real assets and determination of the optimal time to invest. To this end, we model the stochastic nature of income and develop methodologies for valuing traded derivatives to facilitate model calibration. A valuation paradigm for freight‐linked assets is then presented and, using a real option approach, we demonstrate its usefulness in investment appraisal and optimal timing of entry in the shipping industry. We find that long‐run freight rate and volatility have an impact on the decision timing and value of the investment that diminishes with increasing vessel age. As time to build declines, the value of the option to wait increases implying a high opportunity cost embedded in the investment decision due to construction lags.