Quantitative Trade Models: Developments and Challenges
回顾了多国多产业的应用一般均衡模型在贸易改革评估中的使用，指出其在预测产业层面效果上的不足，并提出改进方向，包括引入产品级数据和降低贸易成本的建模。
Applied general equilibrium (AGE) models, which feature multiple countries, multiple industries, and input–output linkages across industries, have been the dominant tool for evaluating the impact of trade reforms since the 1980s. We review how these models are used to perform policy analysis and document their shortcomings in predicting the industry-level effects of past trade reforms. We argue that, to improve their performance, AGE models need to incorporate product-level data on bilateral trade relations by industry and better model how trade reforms lower bilateral trade costs. We use the least-traded-products methodology of Kehoe et al. (2015) to provide guidance on how improvements can be made. We provide further suggestions on how AGE models can incorporate recent advances in quantitative trade theory to improve their predictive ability and better quantify the gains from trade liberalization.