Forecasting errors by the Troika in the economic adjustment programme for Portugal
评估2011年葡萄牙与三驾马车（欧盟委员会、欧洲央行、国际货币基金组织）达成的经济调整计划，发现若考虑经济生产结构和失业率与外部赤字的关系，预测错误本可避免；失业率被低估约4个百分点，造成不必要的社会经济成本。
This article presents an evaluation of the economic adjustment programme negotiated between the Portuguese government and the Troika (European Commission, ECB and IMF) in May 2011, using an assessment that is different from the usual studies. Instead of a comparison between the actual results and the proposed targets, an evaluation of the quality of the programme forecast is made, showing that errors could have been avoided if the productive (input–output) structure of the economy and also the unemployment rate/external deficit trade-off had been taken into account. The main conclusion of this assessment is that a large underestimation of the unemployment rate was made, amounting to about four percentage points, which illustrates the technical flaw of this adjustment programme and the huge economic and social costs it unnecessarily caused. The methodology used can easily be replicated for assessing other similar programmes, such those applied in Greece, Ireland and Cyprus.