Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan
利用日本政府支出预测数据，研究发现零利率下限时期政府支出的产出乘数为1.5，高于正常时期的0.6，且零利率下限时期政府支出增加会促进私人消费和投资，而正常时期则产生挤出效应。
Using a rich dataset on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). The on-impact output multiplier is 1.5 in the ZLB period and 0.6 outside of it. We estimate that government spending shocks increase both private consumption and investment during the ZLB period, but crowd them out in the normal period. There is evidence that expected inflation increases more in the ZLB period than in the normal period.