参数空间边界上参数的自举检验的一致性

On the Consistency of Bootstrap Testing for a Parameter on the Boundary of the Parameter Space

Journal of Time Series Analysis · 2016
被引 27
ABS 3

中文导读

研究了参数位于空间边界时(如检验零位置参数或ARCH效应),基于零假设下参数估计的受限自举检验具有一致性,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟证明其在检验ARCH时小样本表现优于标准检验。

Abstract

It is well known that with a parameter on the boundary of the parameter space, such as in the classic cases of testing for a zero location parameter or no autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effects, the classic nonparametric bootstrap – based on unrestricted parameter estimates – leads to inconsistent testing. In contrast, we show here that for the two aforementioned cases, a nonparametric bootstrap test based on parameter estimates obtained under the null – referred to as ‘restricted bootstrap’ – is indeed consistent. While the restricted bootstrap is simple to implement in practice, novel theoretical arguments are required in order to establish consistency. In particular, since the bootstrap is analysed both under the null hypothesis and under the alternative, non‐standard asymptotic expansions are required to deal with parameters on the boundary. Detailed proofs of the asymptotic validity of the restricted bootstrap are given and, for the leading case of testing for no ARCH, a Monte Carlo study demonstrates that the bootstrap quasi‐likelihood ratio statistic performs extremely well in terms of empirical size and power for even remarkably small samples, outperforming the standard and bootstrap Lagrange multiplier tests as well as the asymptotic quasi‐likelihood ratio test.

计量经济学统计推断自举方法假设检验