Detecting Imbalances in House Prices: What Goes Up Must Come Down?*
提出四种泡沫检测方法，用于监控房价走势，并应用于美国、芬兰和挪威数据。结果显示美国2000年代初存在泡沫，当前房价与基本面一致；芬兰有失衡迹象，挪威无泡沫。
Abstract I suggest a toolkit of four bubble‐detection methods that can be used to monitor developments in house prices. These methods are applied to US, Finnish, and Norwegian data. For the United States, all measures unanimously suggest a bubble in the early to mid‐2000s, whereas current US house prices are found to be aligned with economic fundamentals. One of the measures indicates imbalances in Finland, while there are no signs of a bubble in Norway. I find that large parts of the US house price bubble can be explained by the sharp increase in capital inflows and the extension of loans to the subprime mortgage market.