Tests for an end-of-sample bubble in financial time series
提出一种基于子抽样方法的检验策略，用于检测样本末期存在的有限长度爆炸性行为，通过子样本统计量获取临界值，对条件异方差和序列相关具有稳健性，并评估了有限样本性质。
In this paper, we examine the issue of detecting explosive behavior in economic and financial time series when an explosive episode is both ongoing at the end of the sample and of finite length. We propose a testing strategy based on a subsampling method in which a suitable test statistic is calculated on a finite number of end-of-sample observations, with a critical value obtained using subsample test statistics calculated on the remaining observations. This approach also has the practical advantage that, by virtue of how the critical values are obtained, it can deliver tests which are robust to, among other things, conditional heteroskedasticity and serial correlation in the driving shocks. We also explore modifications of the raw statistics to account for unconditional heteroskedasticity using studentization and a White-type correction. We evaluate the finite sample size and power properties of our proposed procedures and find that they offer promising levels of power, suggesting the possibility for earlier detection of end-of-sample bubble episodes compared to existing procedures.