Twenty Years of the EU‐Turkey Customs Union: A Synthetic Control Method Analysis
使用合成控制法评估1995年欧盟-土耳其关税同盟对土耳其贸易和人均GDP的影响，发现若无该同盟，土耳其对欧盟出口和人均GDP将分别减少38%和13%。
Abstract The paper studying the 1995 EU–Turkey Customs Union (CU) delivers a quantitative assessment of trade and GDP per capita effects of the CU on the Turkish economy. Our Synthetic Control Method based analysis reveals, contrary to the results of most studies in the literature, that the CU's effects have been substantial by any standards. In particular, the paper shows that in the absence of the EU–Turkey CU, Turkish exports to the EU and GDP per capita would have been 38 per cent and 13 per cent less, respectively.