Estimation of the Population Size by Using the One-Inflated Positive Poisson Model
针对捕获-再捕获数据中计数为1的异常多现象，提出单峰膨胀正泊松模型，用于Horvitz-Thompson估计总体规模，避免现有估计量因忽视这种异质性而偏大。
Summary In population size estimation, many capture–recapture-type data exhibit a preponderance of ‘1’-counts. This excess of 1s can arise as subjects gain information from the initial capture that provides a desire and ability to avoid subsequent captures. Existing population size estimators that purport to deal with heterogeneity can be much too large in the presence of 1-inflation, which is a specific form of heterogeneity. To deal with the phenomena of excess 1s, we propose the one-inflated positive Poisson model for use as the truncated count distribution in Horvitz–Thompson estimation of the population size.