Fewer voters, higher stakes? The applicability of rational choice for voter turnout in Quebec municipalities
研究利用多元回归模型分析魁北克市镇2009和2013年选举数据，发现选民规模等理性选择因素能解释45%的投票率差异，且对大小市镇影响不同。
Municipal voter turnout is often considered to be a function of electorate size. According to the rational choice theory of voter behavior, a rational voter is more inclined to abstain in the presence of larger electorates, and more likely to participate in smaller ones. This article examines the impact of electorate size on voter turnout using a multivariate regression model to explain voter participation in Quebec municipalities in the 2009 and 2013 local elections ( N = 1040). Several other assumptions pertaining to the rational voter are also tested. We find that rational choice theory explains 45% of municipal voter participation in these Quebec elections and that it supports the probability of pivotal voting. Our analysis also confirms that the number of electors, number of mayoral candidates, tax rate, presence of a political party, and incumbency have different effects on participation in small and large municipalities.