THE IMPACT OF STANDARD VALUE ADDED TAX ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CEE-5 COUNTRIES: ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS AND SIMULATIONS
研究了保加利亚、捷克、匈牙利、波兰和罗马尼亚五个中欧国家1995-2015年标准增值税率对经济增长的影响，发现整体上增值税率对经济增长有正向作用，但短期效应因国而异。
The value added tax (VAT), as an instrument of fiscal policy, might have an important role on economic growth. This study analyzes the impact of standard VAT rate on economic growth in five Central and Eastern European countries (CEE-5) (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania). Different types of panel data models (random effect model, dynamic panel and panel vector-autoregression) over 1995–2015 indicated a positive influence of VAT rate on economic growth. There is a bilateral Granger causality between economic growth and VAT rate. The Bayesian linear models indicate a positive effect of VAT rate on GDP rate only for Hungary. On short-run, the other countries register lower GDP rates when VAT rates increase. Some simulations of economic growth for 2016 and 2018 were made for each CEE-5 country under different assumptions regarding VAT rate values.