Consumer Expectations: A Residual Based Approach
提出一个反映消费者乐观或悲观程度的预期指标，并与购买力平价GDP结合得到“有效GDP”，发现乐观国家该指标比传统PPP GDP高4-5%，悲观国家低约2%。
This paper presents an economy‐wide consumer expectations indicator that reflects different degrees of optimism or pessimism with respect to consumers’ confidence in their economy. The indicator provides a useful complement to traditional economic indicators that are frequently used to compare countries, such as gross domestic product (GDP) in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Our indicator may be seen as representing the influence of social wealth on economic behavior–that is, of effects left out of a standard economic analysis. We use a theoretical approach to integrate the expectations measure with the International Comparison Program's (ICP) PPP GDP statistics which produces a measure we term “effective GDP.” Compared to the ICP's PPP figures, the measure of “effective GDP” differs from the ICP's PPP estimates by as much as four to five percent in the positive direction for apparently optimistic countries and as much as two percent downwards for pessimists.