Fiscal Policy and Debt Management with Incomplete Markets*
研究在不完全市场中，拉姆齐规划者如何选择扭曲性劳动税并管理证券组合，通过二阶近似得到政府债务和税收的矩公式，并应用于美国数据发现最优目标债务水平为负但接近零，债务分布分散且均值回归缓慢。
Abstract A Ramsey planner chooses a distorting tax on labor and manages a portfolio of securities in an economy with incomplete markets. We develop a method that uses second order approximations of Ramsey policies to obtain formulas for conditional and unconditional moments of government debt and taxes that include means and variances of the invariant distribution as well as speeds of mean reversion. The asymptotic mean of the planner's portfolio minimizes a measure of fiscal risk. We obtain analytic expressions that approximate moments of the invariant distribution and apply them to data on a primary government deficit, aggregate consumption, and returns on traded securities. For U.S. data, we find that the optimal target debt level is negative but close to zero, the invariant distribution of debt is very dispersed, and mean reversion is slow.