选择中的相关性误解

Correlation Misperception in Choice

American Economic Review · 2017
被引 29
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

从决策理论角度分析决策者如何误解选择中的相互依赖关系,提出一个允许错误感知相关风险的简单灵活模型,并给出公理基础。

Abstract

We present a decision-theoretic analysis of an agent's understanding of the interdependencies in her choices. We provide the foundations for a simple and flexible model that allows the misperception of correlated risks. We introduce a framework in which the decision maker chooses a portfolio of assets among which she may misperceive the joint returns, and present simple axioms equivalent to a representation in which she attaches a probability to each possible joint distribution over returns and then maximizes subjective expected utility using her ( possibly misspecified) beliefs.

相关性误知决策理论资产组合选择主观预期效用