Revisiting rescheduling: MRP nervousness and the bullwhip effect
研究了两级供应链中MRP系统的神经质问题，提出一种加权未来预测误差的度量方法，发现零售商使用比例订货点策略并考虑其未来影响时，能减少牛鞭效应、库存成本和制造商的MRP神经质。
We study the material requirements planning (MRP) system nervousness problem from a dynamic, stochastic and economic perspective in a two-echelon supply chain under first-order auto-regressive demand. MRP nervousness is an effect where the future order forecasts, given to suppliers so that they may plan production and organise their affairs, exhibits extreme period-to-period variability. We develop a measure of nervousness that weights future forecast errors geometrically over time. Near-term forecast errors are weighted higher than distant forecast errors. Focusing on replenishment policies for high volume items, we investigate two methods of generating order call-offs and two methods of creating order forecasts. For order call-offs, we consider the traditional order-up-to (OUT) policy and the proportional OUT policy (POUT). For order forecasts, we study both minimum mean square error (MMSE) forecasts of the demand process and MMSE forecasts coupled with a procedure that accounts for the known future influence of the POUT policy. We show that when retailers use the POUT policy and account for its predictable future behaviour, they can reduce the bullwhip effect, supply chain inventory costs and the manufacturer’s MRP nervousness.