Putting the Cycle Back into Business Cycle Analysis
研究商业周期主要是由外部冲击驱动,还是由内部机制产生繁荣与萧条的交替,通过扩展频率窗口、考虑金融摩擦导致的战略互补性以及允许局部不稳定的稳态,支持内生机制的解释。
Are business cycles mainly a response to persistent exogenous shocks, or do they instead reflect a strong endogenous mechanism which produces recurrent boom-bust phenomena? In this paper we present evidence in favor of the second interpretation and we highlight the set of key elements that influence our answer. The elements that tend to favor this type of interpretation of business cycles are (i) slightly extending the frequency window one associates with business cycle phenomena, (ii) allowing for strategic complementarities across agents that arise due to financial frictions, and (iii) allowing for a locally unstable steady state in estimation.