An empirical contribution to Minsky’s financial fragility: evidence from non-financial sectors in Japan
基于现金流会计框架和明斯基安全边际，构建金融脆弱性指数，检测日本非金融部门的对冲、投机和庞兹融资配置及演化，并用面板逻辑回归分析庞兹融资概率的决定因素。
This study presents an empirical analysis to detect Minsky’s financial fragility and its determinants in non-financial sectors in Japan, with particular attention on the differences between sectors and size. While post-Keynesian developed theoretical analyses of financial fragility for economic growth models, its empirical application is limited. Based on the financial fragility indices derived from a cash-flow accounting framework and Minsky’s margins of safety, I detect the overall configuration and evolution of financial fragility (hedge, speculative and Ponzi) in Japan. Then, I detect the factors that determine the probability of being Ponzi finance using a panel logistic regression. The results show that although speculative finance dominates many sector and size categories, the evolution of hedge and Ponzi finance is diversified and the determinants of financial fragility differ by category in Japan.