Transit Migration: All Roads Lead to America
研究发现许多移民并非直接从出生国到达最终目的地，而是经过过境国；例如9%的美国新移民来自过境国而非出生国。文章构建了一个全球迁移动态模型，解释了过境迁移如何影响目的地吸引力，并模拟了反事实情景以揭示过境路径的溢出效应。
The paths of many migrants include multiple destinations and transit routes, yet this pattern is almost never reflected in empirical analyses. For example, 9% of recent immigrants to the US arrived from a transit country as opposed to the one they were born in. Among those arriving from many OECD countries, transit migration ratio exceeds 30%. To explain these patterns, we construct a dynamic model of global migration that allows transit migration opportunities to impact the attractiveness of locations. After estimating structural parameters of the model, we simulate various counterfactual scenarios to highlight the spillovers of transit migration paths.