Local Gaussian Process Model for Large-Scale Dynamic Computer Experiments
针对大规模动态计算机模拟器（输出时间序列），提出一种基于奇异值分解和高斯过程的局部建模方法，通过新准则选择训练点的局部邻域，提升计算效率与预测精度。
The recent accelerated growth in the computing power has generated popularization of experimentation with dynamic computer models in various physical and engineering applications. Despite the extensive statistical research in computer experiments, most of the focus had been on the theoretical and algorithmic innovations for the design and analysis of computer models with scalar responses. In this article, we propose a computationally efficient statistical emulator for a large-scale dynamic computer simulator (i.e., simulator which gives time series outputs). The main idea is to first find a good local neighborhood for every input location, and then emulate the simulator output via a singular value decomposition (SVD) based Gaussian process (GP) model. We develop a new design criterion for sequentially finding this local neighborhood set of training points. Several test functions and a real-life application have been used to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach over a naive method of choosing local neighborhood set using the Euclidean distance among design points. The supplementary material, which contains proof of the theoretical results, detailed algorithms, additional simulation results, and R codes, are available online.