Determinants of Relative Sectoral Prices: The Role of Demographic Change
研究了人口老龄化如何通过增加对非贸易老年服务的需求，导致非贸易品相对价格上升，进而引起实际汇率升值，并利用15个OECD国家数据估计了其影响程度。
Abstract Demographic change raises demand for non‐tradable old‐age related services relative to tradable commodities. This demand shift increases the relative price of non‐tradables and thereby causes real exchange rates to appreciate. We claim that the change in demand affects prices via imperfect intersectoral factor mobility. Using a sample of 15 OECD countries, we estimate a robust increase of relative prices. According to our main estimate, up to one fifth of the average increase in relative prices between 1970 and 2009 can be attributed to population ageing. Further findings confirm the relevance of imperfect factor mobility: Countries with more rigid labour markets experience stronger price effects.