Insured Loss Inflation: How Natural Catastrophes Affect Reconstruction Costs
研究了自然灾害后重建劳动力工资上涨导致的保险损失通胀（需求激增效应），基于美国192次灾害事件构建计量模型，解释了该效应75%以上的方差，帮助保险公司更准确计算保费和经济资本。
A BSTRACT In the aftermath of a natural catastrophe, there is increased demand for skilled reconstruction labor, which leads to significant increases in reconstruction labor wages and hence insured losses. Such inflation effects are known as “Demand Surge” effects. It is important for insurance companies to properly account for these effects when calculating insurance premiums and determining economic capital. We propose an approach to quantifying the Demand Surge effect and present an econometric model for the effect that is based on 192 catastrophe events in the United States. Our model explains more than 75 percent of the variance of the Demand Surge effect and is thus able to identify the key drivers of the phenomenon.