A New Index of Housing Sentiment
基于家庭调查数据，用偏最小二乘法构建住房情绪指数，该指数能准确追踪未来房价增长率预期，并解释房价周期波动的大部分变化，优于常用宏观经济变量。
We propose a new measure for housing sentiment and show that it accurately tracks expectations of future house price growth rates. We construct the housing sentiment index using partial least squares on household survey responses to questions about buying conditions for houses. We find that housing sentiment explains a large share of the time variation in house prices during both boom and bust cycles, and it strongly outperforms several macroeconomic variables typically used to forecast house prices. This paper was accepted by Tyler Shumway, finance.