Good Samaritans vs. Hardliners: the Role of Credible Signalling in Greek Bailout Negotiations
本文将希腊与其债权人之间的互动建模为成本高昂的信号博弈，指出可信的信息交换能改善受援国遵守条件的激励，并解释希腊债务危机谈判结果的关键机制。
Abstract In this paper, we model the interactions between Greece and its creditors as a costly signalling game. The main argument is that a costly exchange of information can improve the recipient's incentives to comply with conditionality. If creditors can credibly signal that suspending financial assistance is a viable option, they will be able to extract concessions from the recipient. Conversely, if the feasibility of the outside option is in doubt, threats to withhold financial support will be toothless. Our contribution is to highlight the role of information exchanges during crisis bargaining. Such signalling mechanisms are central to understanding the outcomes of the Greek debt drama, but are absent from existing accounts.