流动性陷阱与无就业复苏

Liquidity Traps and Jobless Recoveries

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · 2016
被引 133 · 同刊同年前 10%
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

构建了一个模型,解释流动性陷阱与无就业复苏同时出现的原因,发现名义工资刚性、泰勒规则和零下限等因素会导致低通胀和高失业长期持续,并识别出通过长期提高名义利率来提振通胀预期进而促进就业的新费雪效应。

Abstract

This paper proposes a model that explains the joint occurrence of liquidity traps and jobless growth recoveries. Its key elements are downward nominal wage rigidity, a Taylor-type interest rate feedback rule, the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, and a confidence shock. Absent a change in policy, the model predicts that low inflation and high unemployment become chronic. With capital accumulation, the model predicts, in addition, an investment slump. The paper identifies a New Fisherian effect, whereby raising the nominal interest rate to its intended target for an extended period of time can boost inflationary expectations and thereby foster employment.

流动性陷阱无就业复苏名义工资刚性零利率下限