How To Manage Long‐term Financial Self‐sufficiency of a National Catastrophe Insurance Fund? The Feasibility of Three Bailout Programmes
研究了国家巨灾保险基金通过预融资、贷款融资和股权融资三种救助计划实现长期财务自给自足的可行性，基于全球损失数据模拟30年现金流，发现这些计划能平衡收支，对政策制定者有参考价值。
Abstract This paper shows the feasibility that a natural catastrophe insurance fund (NCIF) may achieve financial self‐sufficiency via three bailout programmes, including pre‐funding, loan‐financing and equity‐financing, to support the insurers during the bad years. Under such programmes, different accounting procedures for the insurers and NCIF are developed to simulate their 30‐year cash flows based on the best‐fitting loss model calibrated by the global insured loss data. The numerical analysis results indicate that the proposed programmes can balance the financial revenue and expenditure of NCIF in the long term, and this conclusion implies the authority can develop similar schemes as NCIF to smooth the peak risk of natural catastrophes.